European utilities may soon have to earn a growing share of their profits by helping households save energy rather than consume it.

Bron: McKinsey Quarterly 
 

Energy consumption is growing more slowly in Europe as energy efficiency measures begin to take hold—and that’s just the beginning. Our research indicates that if selected existing technologies were deployed to the fullest by 2020, a new home could consume around 90 percent less energy, whether gas or electricity, from the grid than it does today. The opportunity for existing homes, which form the majority of housing stock, is substantial too: cuts of 35 to 40 percent could be achieved. (For more on what this entails, tour the interactive exhibit, “The home of the future—demanding less from the grid”).

Energy utilities would thus be hit by lower revenues and profits, both in retailing and generating power. For the latter, margins could fall by 30 percent in a scenario in which new homes became almost energy neutral. Margins would still drop significantly—by close to 10 percent or more—in our less aggressive deployment scenarios.